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Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin wallets holding over 10,000 BTC are declining, echoing 2021 top signals.
- Institutional interest remains strong, led by MicroStrategy and other public firms.
- Bitcoin ETFs saw over $4B in net inflows in July, supporting continued upside.
Bitcoin [BTC] may be entering the final stretch of its current bull market, according to a fractal-based pattern identified by on-chain analyst Joao Wedson from Alphractal. The red flag? While Bitcoin’s price continues to climb, the number of large-holding wallets—those with over 10,000 BTC—has steadily declined.
During the 2020/2021 BTC bull market, the price kept rising while the number of addresses holding over 10k BTC was dropping.
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) July 29, 2025
The same pattern is happening again.
In my opinion, this signals that the BTC bull market has just a few weeks left — which aligns with all our other… pic.twitter.com/XbT295Uabo
This type of divergence mirrors the setup seen just before the 2020–2021 bull market ended. Wallets in this key cohort have now dropped below 90, reinforcing concerns that a local top could be forming.
Wedson projects the cycle may wrap up by October, based on historical fractal patterns. Yet, as of the latest data, Bitcoin remains resilient, trading above $117,265 since its July 17 high.
Public Companies Keep Buying
Despite bearish technical signals, institutional adoption is holding strong. MicroStrategy, led by Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, recently added $2.46 billion worth of BTC to its holdings. This pushed the firm’s portfolio value to $74.18 billion, a 60% increase, according to SaylorTracker.
Mara Holding followed suit with a $950 million Bitcoin purchase, adding to the broader trend. In total, 42 publicly traded companies now hold 4.28% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. MicroStrategy alone accounts for 2.894%—a sign of growing institutional dominance.
ETFs Signal Ongoing Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin spot ETFs are also reinforcing the bullish case. According to CoinGlass, these funds collectively manage $151.28 billion in assets. July saw a net inflow of over $4.2 billion into Bitcoin ETFs—despite over half a billion dollars in outflows.
Also Read: Bitcoin on Edge Ahead of Powell Speech — Here’s What Could Happen
This sustained inflow from both public firms and traditional finance products suggests that any upcoming correction could be temporary and shallow, rather than a prolonged bear phase.
Divergence or Just a Pause?
While on-chain metrics point to potential exhaustion in the current cycle, persistent demand from institutions and ETF buyers suggests underlying strength remains. The next few weeks may determine whether this divergence marks a top—or simply a breather.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
