Bitcoin at Risk? ETF Outflows Surge as Analysts Warn of $50K Drop

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• Bitcoin ETF withdrawals and bearish derivatives data signal growing investor caution.
  
• Analysts warn BTC could test lower support before a recovery phase begins.
  
• Long-term holder stability suggests the broader market cycle isn’t broken.

Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum after failing to hold above $72,000, with a mix of institutional outflows, cautious derivatives markets, and macro uncertainty weighing on sentiment. The leading cryptocurrency is hovering near $66,000, and analysts warn that a deeper correction could unfold if market confidence does not improve.

ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Caution

Recent data shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing renewed selling pressure. Funds recorded over $410 million in daily outflows, extending a multi-week losing streak and pushing total assets under management sharply lower from last year’s peak. Major products from firms such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments saw some of the largest withdrawals, reflecting growing caution among institutional investors.

The shift in sentiment coincided with a revised forecast from Standard Chartered, which lowered its 2026 Bitcoin price target and warned that prices could temporarily fall toward $50,000 before stabilizing. While the bank still expects a recovery later in the year, the downgrade added to short-term bearish pressure.

Derivatives Market Points to Defensive Positioning

Bitcoin’s futures and options markets also suggest traders are hedging downside risk rather than betting on a rebound. Aggregate futures open interest has dropped sharply in dollar terms, partly due to forced liquidations exceeding $5 billion in recent weeks.

At the same time, options data from exchanges such as Deribit shows a strong preference for protective put options, indicating investors are paying a premium to guard against further declines. Funding rates on futures contracts have remained subdued for months, reinforcing the view that leveraged bullish positions remain scarce.

Macro Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

Broader economic signals are adding to market hesitation. Slower job growth in the United States has fueled concerns about economic momentum, even as equity markets remain near record highs. Analysts say this unusual divergence—stocks strong, Bitcoin weak—reflects uncertainty about interest rate policy and growth prospects.

Also Read: Binance Just Bought $1B in Bitcoin — Is the BTC Bottom Finally Near?

Research from CryptoQuant suggests Bitcoin’s realized price support sits near $55,000, implying further downside may be possible before a durable bottom forms. However, the firm also notes that long-term holders have not yet shown signs of panic selling, a factor that could limit the severity of any downturn.

Bitcoin’s current weakness appears driven less by a single catalyst and more by a combination of institutional caution, defensive derivatives positioning, and macroeconomic uncertainty. While ETF outflows and bearish forecasts have dented confidence, long-term holder stability suggests the broader cycle may still have room to recover. For now, the market’s next direction will likely depend on economic clarity and renewed institutional demand.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.