Avalanche (AVAX) price is clinging to a critical support zone, with mounting bearish signals threatening to send it tumbling toward $15 — despite a flurry of on-chain activity.
After bottoming out in mid-March, AVAX reversed from a double bottom pattern and began consolidating within an ascending channel through late April, supported by a steadily rising RSI that pointed to growing bullish momentum. However, the tide appears to be turning.
In recent weeks, AVAX’s price action has morphed into what resembles a descending triangle pattern, a typically bearish structure. Compounding the concern, the price has broken below the ascending channel’s lower boundary, signaling a potential shift from bullish consolidation to bearish market pressure.
Currently trading between $17.80 and $18.50, AVAX sits at a decisive confluence zone. This level aligns with horizontal support, the descending triangle’s lower edge, and the now-broken ascending channel floor. A clear break beneath this zone could confirm the descending triangle’s breakdown, paving the way for a potential decline to the $15 mark.
Technical indicators underscore the urgency. The RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting the asset is primed for a major move. The next few daily candles will be pivotal in determining whether AVAX stages a bullish rebound from this support cluster or capitulates to further downside.
On-Chain Frenzy Fails to Buoy Price
This precarious technical setup contrasts sharply with Avalanche’s surging on-chain activity. According to recent data, AVAX’s network has witnessed a significant uptick in transactions, driven largely by arena.trade. The innovative launchpad allows users to mint tradable ERC-404–style tokens directly from X (formerly Twitter) posts using a bonding-curve mechanism.
As a result, the 7-day moving average of daily transactions has soared past 1 million — the highest level in over a year — underscoring strong developer and community engagement.
Also Read: SEC Delays VanEck Spot Avalanche ETF Decision, AVAX Price Drops Amid Market Uncertainty
Yet, this spike in transactional volume hasn’t translated into broader user adoption. Active address counts remain relatively flat, suggesting that the surge is being fueled by a smaller, concentrated user base rather than widespread network growth.
With the disconnect between bullish on-chain metrics and bearish price action growing more pronounced, AVAX now stands at a crucial juncture. Whether bulls can leverage this network momentum to fend off further technical deterioration remains to be seen — but time is running short.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
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