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- Binance.US plans a CFTC license bid for prediction markets as Robinhood’s event contracts revenue overtakes crypto. Full breakdown here.
- Prediction markets revenue tops crypto and stocks at Robinhood, while Binance.US moves to enter the space. See what’s driving the shift.
- Robinhood’s event contracts hit $156M in Q2 as Binance.US eyes a CFTC license. Prediction markets are reshaping crypto trading.
Prediction markets are no longer a niche corner of crypto trading — they’re becoming a genuine revenue engine, and two major players just proved it in very different ways. Binance.US is preparing to enter the space with regulatory backing, while Robinhood just showed what happens when a platform gets there first.
Binance.US Eyes a CFTC License
Binance.US plans to apply for a Designated Contract Market license with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in August, according to CEO Steve Gregory, who announced the move at the Rare Evo blockchain conference. The license would let the exchange legally offer its own prediction markets, putting it in direct competition with established names like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Getting there won’t be automatic. The CFTC requires DCM applicants to meet 23 core principles, covering everything from system safeguards to record-keeping and conflict-of-interest policies. As of Wednesday, no application from Binance.US appeared in the CFTC’s public filings. The timing is notable, too — this move comes roughly a year after the SEC dropped its lawsuit against Binance, its US arm, and former CEO Changpeng Zhao over allegations tied to customer fund misuse.
Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Now Outearn Crypto and Stocks
While Binance.US is still applying, Robinhood is already cashing in. The trading app’s event contracts business pulled in $156 million in the second quarter — more than its crypto trading revenue ($100 million, down 38% year-over-year) and its equities revenue ($129 million) combined outpace individually. That helped push Robinhood’s total transaction-based revenue up 44% year-over-year to $776 million.
The company’s overall numbers were strong across the board: net revenue climbed 32% to $1.31 billion, and net income jumped 48% to $573 million. CFO Shiv Verma credited “record revenues” and new highs in equity, options and event contract volumes for the results.
Robinhood didn’t stumble into this. It launched election-related contracts back in October 2024, opened a dedicated prediction markets hub by March 2025, and in June rolled out Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse built with Susquehanna International Group. The company is also expanding on the blockchain side — Robinhood Chain, its Arbitrum-based Layer 2, has already processed over 150 million transactions since launch, with roughly $325 million in total value locked.
Also Read: Tokyo to Seoul: The 2 Crypto Moves Signaling Asia’s Institutional Turning Point
What This Means Going Forward
Robinhood’s numbers make a strong case for why Binance.US wants in: prediction markets are proving they can outperform crypto trading itself. As regulatory clarity around event contracts improves, expect more exchanges to chase the same playbook — license first, then compete for volume.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
