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- Bitcoin’s 1-2 year holders show cooling realized losses, a signal that’s marked past bear market bottoms. Here’s what to watch next.
- Onchain data points to $69,000 as Bitcoin’s next key price battleground. Learn why this level could decide the market’s direction.
- Glassnode data reveals a classic Bitcoin bottom signal may be repeating. Get the full breakdown of what it means for BTC price.
Bitcoin’s path out of its current slump may hinge on a group of investors nobody’s really talking about: the people who bought BTC between one and two years ago. According to fresh data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode, this cohort’s selling behavior has historically marked the difference between a falling market and a bottoming one — and the latest numbers suggest that shift might already be underway.
Why This Holder Group Matters
Cryptovizart, Glassnode’s lead research analyst, pointed to a specific metric: the dollar volume of losses realized by holders who acquired their Bitcoin 12 to 24 months ago. This group bought in during the back half of the last bull run, when BTC climbed from roughly $62,800 toward $107,000, leaving many of them sitting on paper losses as the price retreated.
The pattern, according to the analysis, tends to repeat. As prices stay weak for extended stretches, these holders grow increasingly willing to sell at a loss, dumping their coins out of frustration rather than conviction. That capitulation phase has historically had to run its course before a bear market can find solid footing. Data shared alongside the report showed realized losses from this group spiking above $75 million on a 30-day rolling basis before starting to taper off — a cooling trend that Cryptovizart flagged as an early signal the worst selling pressure may be fading.
The $69,000 Battleground
Realized losses aren’t the only signal traders are watching. Glassnode’s weekly research note also highlighted the average cost basis of short-term Bitcoin holders, currently sitting near $69,000 — a level that also happens to line up with the previous cycle’s all-time highs from 2021.
That price zone is shaping up as a critical test. Investors who bought near that mark are the ones most likely to sell the moment they’re no longer underwater, meaning Bitcoin’s first run at $69,000 could trigger a wave of selling. Whether the market absorbs that pressure and pushes through, or gets rejected and slips back into its current range, may determine the next major move.
What Comes Next
Separately, other onchain indicators — including stochastic RSI readings on two-month charts — are also flashing classic reversal setups, adding weight to the idea that Bitcoin’s bear phase could be approaching exhaustion. None of these signals guarantee an immediate turnaround, but together they paint a picture of a market where the heaviest selling may be behind it, with $69,000 standing as the next real test of conviction.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!
