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- Avalanche is testing a critical resistance level after rising volume and improving momentum.
- Ethereum may be nearing a cycle bottom based on historical realized price patterns.
- A confirmed altcoin recovery still depends on stronger structural breakouts and renewed demand.
After a prolonged stretch of losses, parts of the altcoin market are beginning to show tentative recovery signals. Recent price action in Avalanche and fresh analysis around Ethereum suggest that while the broader market remains fragile, early shifts in momentum may be underway.
Avalanche Pushes Key Resistance as Momentum Improves
Avalanche saw renewed trading activity on February 20, with volume rising roughly 25% to about $249 million. The token hovered near $9.25, pressing against the descending resistance that formed after the sharp October selloff. That trendline has repeatedly blocked rallies for months, making this latest test particularly important.
Technical indicators show modest improvement. The daily MACD recently flashed a bullish crossover, and the histogram has edged into positive territory, hinting at short-term buying pressure. Meanwhile, RSI has climbed from oversold levels, though it remains below the neutral 50 mark — suggesting the recovery is still tentative.
Data from CryptoQuant indicates sustained taker buy dominance in both spot and futures markets. This points to active demand rather than passive accumulation. Still, price has yet to break the structural downtrend, meaning a confirmed shift in market direction remains unproven.
Macro Trend Still Pressures AVAX
On higher timeframes, Avalanche continues to trade beneath a multi-year resistance level that has capped rallies since 2021. Weekly momentum indicators remain weak, with RSI deep in bearish territory and MACD still below zero. Until a decisive weekly close above this long-term trendline occurs, the broader structure favors caution over optimism.
Ethereum Near Potential Bottom, Says Fundstrat Analyst
While Avalanche tests resistance, Ethereum may be approaching a cyclical turning point. According to Fundstrat digital asset strategist Sean Farrell, historical patterns tied to realized price suggest ETH could find support between roughly $1,360 and $1,770.
Past cycles show Ethereum often stabilizes once it drops below the average on-chain holder cost basis. If the 2025 pattern repeats, ETH may have already formed a bottom near recent lows. However, if the deeper 2022-style drawdown returns, further downside could still emerge.
Also Read: Avalanche Defies Market Slump With Explosive Network Growth — What’s Next for AVAX?
Farrell notes that sustained recovery typically requires renewed U.S. buying interest. Indicators tied to exchange flows, including data linked to Coinbase, show that American demand has softened but not yet turned decisively positive. Without that shift, reclaiming $2,000 could take time.
Taken together, both Avalanche’s resistance test and Ethereum’s potential bottom highlight a market in transition rather than a confirmed reversal. Momentum is improving on shorter timeframes, but macro structures still lean bearish.
For investors, the coming weeks may determine whether this is the start of a broader altcoin recovery — or simply another pause within a longer downtrend.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
