|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
- Bitcoin mining difficulty saw its largest negative adjustment since 2021
- Hashrate fell sharply as prices dropped and U.S. storms disrupted miners
- Profitability is near historic lows, forcing weaker miners offline
Bitcoin’s mining network has recorded its largest single negative difficulty adjustment since China’s 2021 mining ban, underscoring the mounting pressure facing miners as prices slide and profitability evaporates.
At block height 935,424, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty fell sharply from 141.67 trillion, marking the 10th largest negative percentage adjustment in the network’s history, according to Bitcoin developer Mononaut. The move followed a sustained slowdown in block production, with average block times drifting to 11.4 minutes, well above the protocol’s 10-minute target.
Hashrate Plunge Triggers Historic Adjustment
The difficulty reset was driven by a steep decline in network computing power. Total Bitcoin hashrate has dropped roughly 20% over the past month, with Luxor’s Hashrate Index showing an 11% decline in just the past week, falling to around 863 EH/s. That’s a sharp retreat from near all-time highs above 1.1 zettahash per second reached in October.
Two forces are weighing heavily on miners: a deep Bitcoin price correction and weather-related disruptions in the United States.
Price Collapse and Storm Disruptions Hit Miners
Bitcoin has fallen more than 45% from its October peak above $126,000, briefly touching $60,000 on Feb. 5 before rebounding to around $68,800. The sell-off has been fueled by rising U.S. Treasury yields, persistent ETF outflows, and a broader risk-off move across markets. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned net sellers in 2026, according to SoSoValue data.
At the same time, Winter Storm Fern forced miners across major U.S. power regions to curtail operations. The storm knocked roughly 200 EH/s offline, with Foundry USA’s hashrate alone dropping by about 60%, according to The Block.
Profitability Near Breaking Point
Miner economics have deteriorated rapidly. Hashprice — a key revenue metric — hit an all-time low near $33 per PH/s/day in early February, well below the roughly $40 threshold many miners need to stay online.
Only the newest Antminer S23 machines remain comfortably profitable. Older rigs, including Antminer S21 and Whatsminer M6 units, are now operating near or below breakeven. Meanwhile, the average cost to mine one bitcoin stands near $87,000, far above current spot prices.
A Potential Contrarian Signal?
Despite the grim outlook, some analysts see a possible inflection point. VanEck notes that Bitcoin has historically delivered positive 90-day returns 65% of the time when hashrate is declining, while Bernstein analysts suggest the market may be nearing a late-stage correction.
For now, the difficulty drop offers modest mechanical relief. Whether it turns into real breathing room depends on where Bitcoin’s price heads next.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
