BONK Down 19% — Here’s Why a Short-Term Bounce Could Still Fail

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• BONK’s January breakout now looks like a temporary relief rally.
  
• Liquidity data suggests a possible short-term bounce before further downside.
  
• Bitcoin’s weakening structure is a major headwind for meme coins.

BONK’s brief January breakout is quickly fading into memory as broader market weakness tightens its grip on risk assets. The memecoin’s failure to hold key technical levels mirrors a deeper problem across crypto: Bitcoin is sliding, capital inflows have stalled, and sellers remain firmly in control. Together, these forces are shaping a cautious outlook for BONK in the near term.

BONK Rally Falters as Meme Sector Slides

BONK posted a bullish structure shift in early January after breaking above its prior downtrend swing at $0.0000103. The move sparked optimism and pushed price toward $0.0000134. But momentum evaporated just as quickly.

Since then, BONK has retraced most of those gains, aligning with sharp losses across the meme coin sector. The category is down more than 15% over the past week, with BONK dropping nearly 19%—underperforming even Dogecoin’s 14.5% decline. Ranked sixth by meme coin market cap, BONK is feeling the weight of a broader risk-off environment.

On-chain volume trends reinforce the bearish case. The On-Balance Volume indicator has slipped below December’s low, extending a downtrend that has persisted since August. This suggests sellers continue to dominate, even after January’s short-lived breakout.

Liquidity Zones Hint at a Modest Bounce

Liquidation data shows a large cluster around $0.0000074 has already been cleared. To the upside, the next notable liquidity pockets sit near $0.0000090 and $0.0000095.

While BONK could attempt a short-term bounce toward these zones, the probability of reaching them remains low under current conditions. Short-term charts show potential retracement resistance between $0.00000755 and $0.00000785. These levels may act as a ceiling before sellers reassert control.

If rejection occurs, downside targets sit near $0.0000064, with further risk toward $0.0000060 and $0.0000053.

Bitcoin Weakness Sets the Tone

Bitcoin’s slide below $80,000 has intensified bearish sentiment across the market. BTC recently touched lows near $75,500 before rebounding slightly to around $78,800, but remains down sharply on both daily and weekly timeframes.

More concerning is the collapse in fresh capital inflows. Realized Cap has flattened, signaling little new money entering Bitcoin. At the same time, spot ETF outflows have surged, and exchange netflows show rising BTC deposits—often a precursor to selling.

With sellers firmly in control and technical momentum negative, analysts warn BTC could remain below $80,000, with $76,000 emerging as a critical support zone.

BONK’s short-term price action is likely to stay reactive to Bitcoin’s direction. A brief technical bounce is possible, but the larger trend remains bearish unless market conditions improve meaningfully.

Also Read: BONK Breaks Its Downtrend as XRP Shrugs Off ETF Shock

For now, January’s breakout looks more like a temporary deviation than a true trend reversal.

BONK’s early-year surge has been overwhelmed by a broad crypto downturn led by Bitcoin’s weakening structure and fading capital inflows. While short-term rebounds may occur, technical and on-chain signals suggest downside risk still dominates. Until Bitcoin stabilizes and demand returns, BONK’s path of least resistance remains lower.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.