MSCI Proposal Could Force $11.6B Crypto Sell-Off — Here’s What’s at Risk

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• Analysts estimate up to $11.6B in forced outflows if MSCI excludes crypto treasury firms
• Strategy could face nearly $3B in selling pressure
• Industry leaders argue the proposal unfairly targets crypto-focused companies

Crypto-focused treasury companies could face significant forced selling if MSCI proceeds with a proposal to remove them from its widely tracked stock indexes. Analysts estimate the move could trigger up to $11.6 billion in outflows, adding fresh pressure to crypto markets that have already been weakening for months.

The proposal has sparked pushback from industry groups, who warn that MSCI’s approach could distort markets and unfairly penalize companies whose core business models remain unchanged.

Why MSCI Index Inclusion Matters

MSCI indexes act as key benchmarks for global investment funds, particularly passive strategies that automatically track index compositions. When a company is removed from an index, funds tracking that benchmark are often required to sell the stock, regardless of fundamentals.

According to BitcoinForCorporations, a group opposing the proposal, a preliminary list of 39 crypto treasury companies could be affected. Together, these firms represent roughly $113 billion in float-adjusted market capitalization, creating the potential for large, forced reallocations.

Strategy Could Bear the Brunt

Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy, accounts for nearly three-quarters of the impacted market value, making it the most exposed if MSCI moves forward. JPMorgan estimates that Strategy alone could face $2.8 billion in outflows due to index removals.

Across all affected firms, analysts project forced selling could reach $10–15 billion, with a midpoint estimate of $11.6 billion. Such a move could amplify selling pressure across crypto markets, which have already been trending lower for nearly three months.

Industry Pushback Gains Momentum

BitcoinForCorporations argues that MSCI’s proposal relies too heavily on balance sheet composition rather than business fundamentals. The group says judging companies primarily by how much crypto they hold ignores their revenue, customers, and operational structure.

Its petition opposing the change has gathered over 1,200 signatures, reflecting growing concern across the industry. Several major firms have also voiced objections, warning that the rule would unfairly single out crypto-related businesses.

Nasdaq-listed Strive recently urged MSCI to allow investors to decide whether they want exposure to Bitcoin-holding companies. Strategy echoed that sentiment, arguing that the proposal risks turning MSCI from a neutral index provider into a gatekeeper biased against crypto as an asset class.

Decision Looms as Markets Watch Closely

MSCI is expected to announce its final decision by January 15, with any approved changes scheduled for implementation in February 2026. Until then, uncertainty around index inclusion could remain an overhang for crypto treasury firms and the broader market.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.