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- Bitwise CIO expects major crypto rally in 2026, not 2025.
- Institutional and tokenization trends are building long-term strength.
- Traditional investors, not crypto natives, are driving new demand.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the next major crypto bull market will arrive in 2026, not before. Speaking at The Bridge conference in New York, Hougan said he’s now “more confident” in that forecast precisely because there’s been no major rally in late 2025—a break from the typical four-year cycle pattern.
“If we had ripped into the end of 2025, the pullback would have been inevitable,” Hougan said, adding that the lack of a year-end surge sets up a stronger foundation for a sustainable rally the following year.
Fundamentals: Tokenization, Stablecoins, and DeFi Revival
Hougan pointed to institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and the rise of tokenization as key forces shaping the next bull market. He also highlighted renewed optimism in decentralized finance, sparked by Uniswap’s recent fee switch proposal, which could reignite on-chain activity after a sluggish period.
“I think the underlying fundamentals are just so sound,” Hougan noted. “Institutional investment, stablecoins, tokenization—these trends are too big to keep down.”
Retail Divide: Crypto-Native vs. Traditional Investors
According to Hougan, today’s pullback is largely driven by “crypto-native retail” investors who have exited after being battered by the FTX collapse, memecoin crashes, and leveraged liquidations. In contrast, traditional finance (TradFi) investors are stepping in through regulated products like Bitcoin ETFs, showing that retail interest hasn’t disappeared—it’s just shifted.
“Traditional retail, like my uncle, he’s moving into crypto,” Hougan said, suggesting mainstream investors may become the surprise drivers of the next uptrend.
Also Read: Bitwise Spot Chainlink ETF Nears Launch After DTCC Listing — What Investors Must Know
Bitcoin Still Has Room to Run
Hougan still sees upside for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, though he doesn’t share the ultra-bullish targets of $250,000 and $15,000 predicted by others. With Bitcoin currently around $101,000, even a moderate rally could mark new highs before 2026.
While 2025 may close without fireworks, Hougan believes the conditions for a powerful 2026 rally are taking shape. Institutional money, tokenized assets, and regulatory stability could set the stage for one of crypto’s most defining years yet.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!
