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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $111,257, facing renewed weakness that pushed the price back to its lowest levels since early July. Yet, despite this short-term pressure, analysts believe the cryptocurrency could soon flip from “weakness” to “positive yet less volatile” growth in the coming months.
New research from network economist Timothy Peterson suggests Bitcoin has a strong historical track record in the final quarter of the year, with an average gain of 44% by Christmas. If this trend holds, BTC could reach $160,000 before the end of 2025.
Bitcoin’s Seasonal Struggles in September
September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with BTC/USD never closing more than 8% higher during this period. This seasonal weakness has weighed on sentiment, with traders questioning whether the market could face a deeper correction before resuming its uptrend.
However, Peterson argues that September’s struggles may simply be a setup for a stronger year-end rally. “Exactly four months until Christmas. How does Bitcoin fare during this time? Up 70% of the time. Average gain +44%,” he explained on X.
Based on this data, Peterson’s model places Bitcoin in a favorable position to recover by Q4, even if short-term volatility persists.
A Path to $160,000 by Year-End?
If Bitcoin were to post its average seasonal gains, its price could climb toward $160,000 by late December, according to data from TradingView.
Peterson cautions, however, that this projection should be treated as a guideline rather than a guarantee. He noted that certain years — such as 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022 — displayed “uncharacteristic” market conditions and should not be directly compared to today’s setup.
Still, Peterson believes 2025 offers a more favorable macro environment, with institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETF inflows, and broader digital asset acceptance setting the stage for higher prices.
Also Read: Metaplanet to Raise $1.2B for Bitcoin—Aiming for 210,000 BTC by 2027
Traders Unfazed by Current Dip
Beyond Peterson’s research, other market participants are also viewing the current dip as a prelude to stronger gains. Popular trader Donny told his X followers that Bitcoin is “frontrunning” its traditional September downturn.
“The scale is different — but the outcome is the same. Much higher,” Donny forecast, comparing today’s price action to the 2017 bull market. He also pointed out that Bitcoin may be copying gold’s performance after periods of lag, a correlation that has held up in recent years.
This perspective suggests that Bitcoin’s recent weakness may not be a sign of breakdown but rather a healthy reset before another leg higher.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Bitcoin price today: $111,257, near July lows.
- September weakness: Historically the worst month, with average performance under +8%.
- Q4 potential: Average historical gain of 44% into Christmas.
- $160,000 target: Possible if seasonal trends repeat.
- Long-term bullish view: Traders see parallels with 2017 and gold correlations.
September Slump, Christmas Rally?
Bitcoin’s September blues are well-documented, but analysts warn against interpreting the current dip as a long-term bearish shift. Historical data shows that Q4 has often been a turning point for BTC, with strong year-end rallies following temporary weakness.
If patterns repeat, Bitcoin could not only rebound but potentially surge toward the $160,000 mark by Christmas 2025, setting the stage for another historic rally. For investors, the message seems clear: short-term weakness may be the setup for long-term strength.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!
