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Despite a turbulent macroeconomic backdrop, Bitcoin (BTC) could soar as high as $138,000 within the next 90 days, according to network economist Timothy Peterson. His latest analysis suggests that historical patterns, coupled with current U.S. economic stressors, point to a significant upside for BTC price action.
The High Yield interest rate is over 8%. What happens next for Bitcoin?
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) April 18, 2025
This has happened 38 times since 2010 (monthly data).
3 months later:
Bitcoin was up 71% of the time.
The median gain was +31%.
If it went lower, the worst loss was -16%.
This likely puts Bitcoin between… pic.twitter.com/MtiLIbhbMd
Currently trading at $85,394, Bitcoin remains resilient even amid global trade tensions and tightening liquidity. Peterson, who has been closely tracking Bitcoin’s correlation with the U.S. High Yield Index Effective Yield, believes that recent macro signals mirror conditions that have historically led to BTC surges.
“This has happened 38 times since 2010,” Peterson stated in an April 18 post. “Three months later, Bitcoin was up 71% of the time, with a median gain of 31%. The worst-case drop was just 16%.”
With the U.S. High Yield Index now above 8%, Peterson estimates that Bitcoin could realistically reach between $75,000 and $138,000 by mid-July. Achieving the upper limit would require a 62% gain from current levels, a scenario not unheard of in Bitcoin’s volatile history.
Also Read: US Government’s Bitcoin Reserve Plan: How Buying 1 Million BTC Could Lead to $1 Million Bitcoin
Adding to the bullish narrative is a dramatic shift in Bitcoin’s correlation with the U.S. dollar index (DXY). Traditionally, BTC and the DXY move inversely. However, 2024 saw this relationship flip, driven by shared macroeconomic pressures including high real interest rates, shrinking liquidity, and global risk aversion.
“This level of BTC-USD correlation is unprecedented,” Peterson noted. “But it’s reflective, not causal. Bitcoin will likely decouple and surge once real yields drop and liquidity improves.”
As the DXY continues to hover below the critical 100 mark—its lowest in three years—some analysts believe BTC could benefit from renewed dollar weakness, echoing the early stages of the 2023 bull market.
With Peterson’s models, including his “Lowest Price Forward” tool, placing a high-confidence floor at $69,000, the outlook for Bitcoin in Q2 2025 appears bullish—offering hope to investors eyeing a return to all-time highs.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
