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Bitcoin (BTC) bounced from its five-month low of $74,300 to touch $83,565 on April 9, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprising 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes. While markets welcomed the move, Bitcoin’s rejection near the $83,500 resistance has left traders cautious about whether the flagship cryptocurrency can maintain its grip on the $80,000 support zone.
Trump’s tariff strategy sparked immediate market optimism. His blanket 10% reciprocal tariff, excluding China, was seen as a conciliatory move. However, the decision to hike tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% reignited U.S.-China trade tensions. Bitcoin surged over 7% in response to the pause, but analysts warn the relief may be short-lived.
“Should retaliation materialize in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap,” trading firm QCP Capital noted in a Telegram update.
Indeed, China’s retaliatory 84% tariffs on U.S. goods, effective April 10, could dampen sentiment. If no resolution follows the 90-day window, BTC may face renewed selling pressure amid broader market anxiety.
Compounding concerns, inflation and recession fears linger. Bitcoin has mirrored tech stocks and risk assets, and analysts argue that tightening monetary policy could weigh further on BTC. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady on May 7, with a rate cut unlikely before June, per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Attention now shifts to April 10’s CPI release, which could reset market expectations. A cooler-than-expected reading might offset inflation worries triggered by Trump’s tariff blanket.
Technically, BTC must hold above the 365-day moving average at $76,000 to avoid downside momentum, according to Glassnode. Reclaiming the 111-day and 200-day MAs at $93,000 and $87,000, respectively, would signal renewed strength. Conversely, failure to stay above $80,000 risks a slide toward critical support zones between $65,000 and $71,000.
With uncertainty brewing, Bitcoin’s path hinges on macro developments and geopolitical shifts. The coming weeks may determine whether the recent bounce is the start of a new trend—or a temporary relief rally.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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