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- XRP ETF approval odds have rebounded to 88% after an initial drop caused by SEC opposition.
- Bloomberg analysts maintain a 95% approval probability, dismissing one commissioner’s vote as insignificant.
- Ripple lawsuit resolution boosts regulatory clarity, fueling optimism for institutional inflows.
The odds of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval recently dipped by 65% after SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s continued opposition to cryptocurrency-based ETFs rattled investor sentiment. Crenshaw, who has consistently voted against all 13 crypto ETF proposals—including those for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP—pushed market odds down to around 65%–66%.
However, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas called the reaction “overblown,” noting that Crenshaw is a lone anti-crypto voice whose opposition holds little sway over the majority decision.
Analysts Hold Firm at 95% Approval Probability
Balchunas, along with fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, maintained their XRP ETF approval probability at 95%, despite the short-lived drop in betting market odds. Posting on X, Balchunas highlighted that Crenshaw’s “no” vote is consistent and “meaningless” given she is outnumbered by pro-ETF commissioners.
Interesting, trades reporting how Polymarket odds of XRP ETF approval went down to 62% after the votes were disclosed showing Crenshaw voting no, but a) she's gonna vote no on EVERYTHING and b) it's meaningless, she's outnumbered = we haven't changed our odds, still at 95%. https://t.co/TamMn8DHVh pic.twitter.com/Ip9G748HrU
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 7, 2025
Polymarket odds, which initially fell to 62%, have since rebounded sharply to around 88%, reflecting renewed investor confidence.
Ripple Lawsuit Resolution Fuels Optimism
The conclusion of the long-running SEC vs Ripple lawsuit has played a pivotal role in reviving bullish sentiment. Following a joint dismissal of appeals by both parties, Polymarket odds of an XRP ETF surged 16% to about 87%. The legal resolution provided long-awaited regulatory clarity, removing a significant obstacle to approval.
Also Read: BlackRock Expected to File XRP ETF Following Ripple Lawsuit Dismissal
In the immediate aftermath, XRP’s price jumped 11.4%, as traders priced in the likelihood of institutional inflows if an ETF receives the green light. Market observers now see ETF approval as a potential catalyst for substantial price gains in the token.
While SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw remains a steadfast opponent of cryptocurrency ETFs, analysts argue her influence is limited. With the Ripple lawsuit resolved and market odds rebounding to 88%, sentiment points strongly toward an approval in the near term. If granted, an XRP ETF could usher in significant institutional investment, potentially sparking the next major price rally for the digital asset.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
