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Toncoin [TON], which looked poised for a bullish breakout just a week ago, is now flashing warning signs across the board. After breaking past the $3.95-local resistance in late March and forming higher lows—a classic sign of bullish momentum—TON was eyeing a potential rally toward $4.80. However, the script flipped in early April.
Surging whale activity and a sudden spike in daily transactions hinted at a looming sell-off. The result? A steep 26.6% plunge in just eight days, with TON now struggling to hold its ground at the $3.50 support level.
Bearish Signals Intensify
On-chain metrics paint a troubling picture for Toncoin bulls. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key indicator of whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss, briefly climbed above 1 at the end of March—suggesting traders were locking in gains. That optimism was short-lived. The SOPR has since slipped below 1, confirming that TON is now being sold at a loss, reinforcing the ongoing bearish sentiment.
The HODLer Net Position Change, another Glassnode metric, also flipped negative. This suggests that long-term holders are exiting their positions, signaling a shift from accumulation to distribution. This behavior, in tandem with heightened whale activity, points to strategic selling amid market weakness.
Technical Breakdown Adds to Pressure
TON’s market structure turned bearish after a failed attempt to sustain gains above $3.95. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which had remained above +0.05 since mid-March—indicating strong capital inflow—has now nosedived to -0.14. This sharp reversal denotes substantial selling pressure in the market.
With TON down 32% in just five days at one point, the bullish narrative has quickly unraveled. Unless the $3.50 support holds firm and investor confidence returns, Toncoin could be headed for deeper losses.
Once considered a breakout contender, Toncoin now finds itself on shaky ground. Rising distribution, weakening technicals, and sustained selling pressure have flipped the outlook from bullish to bearish in a matter of days.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
Also Read: Toncoin (TON) Surges as Grok AI Integration with Telegram Fuels Bullish Momentum
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