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Key Takeaways:
- Toncoin failed to stay above $3.50, signaling potential for renewed downside.
- RSI bearish divergence adds weight to the weak breakout narrative.
- Weekly chart suggests a possible fall to $1.28 if the triangle breaks down.
Toncoin (TON) showed signs of bullish strength in July after breaking out from a descending resistance trend line. However, its failure to hold above a key range high at $3.50 is casting doubt over the sustainability of the rally. Current indicators and wave analysis point to a likely continuation of the broader bearish trend.
Breakout Falters at $3.50 Resistance
After reclaiming the $2.85 horizontal support in early July, Toncoin surged to a high of $3.69 on July 31. This move confirmed a breakout from the descending resistance that had kept prices in check since April. However, the breakout lacked follow-through. A sharp rejection — marked by a long upper wick — pushed TON back below the $3.50 resistance, a level it has struggled to break for months.
Bearish Divergence Confirms Weak Momentum
Momentum indicators echo the price action’s hesitation. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence, signaling weakening momentum despite the recent rally. This divergence, combined with the failure to sustain above resistance, suggests the breakout may have been a bull trap.
Also Read: Toncoin (TON) Price Eyes 21% Rally as $400M Treasury Launch Sparks Investor Optimism
Weekly Chart Hints at Further Downside
On the weekly timeframe, Toncoin’s structure remains bearish. The wave analysis suggests TON is in the fourth wave of a downward trend that began in June. This wave has formed a symmetrical triangle — a consolidation pattern that often resolves in the direction of the preceding trend. If this pattern breaks downward, Toncoin could decline sharply toward $1.28.
Toncoin’s breakout initially inspired optimism, but key technical indicators and historical resistance paint a cautious outlook. Unless bulls can reclaim and hold above $3.50 convincingly, the risk of a retest of lower support — and potentially a new low — remains high. Traders should watch for confirmation before anticipating any sustained upward momentum.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
