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- Bitcoin is on track for a rare negative November despite strong historical averages.
- High-price buyers are capitulating, pressuring BTC into short-term weakness.
- Whale wallets are quietly increasing holdings, signaling demand may return soon.
Bitcoin’s famous “November effect’’ appears to be losing steam, but analysts argue the current weakness may be setting the stage for a rebound. With whale accumulation quietly ticking higher and short-term holders nearing a critical stress point, market watchers say a decisive move could be close.
Historic Trends Break Down as Bitcoin Slides
Bitcoin has long been known for delivering its strongest monthly gains in November, averaging more than 40% returns. But this year’s price action has defied tradition. After an unexpectedly soft October—normally another bullish month—the cryptocurrency is on track to close November in the red as well.
Bitfinex analysts noted that Bitcoin is trading more than 20% below its level at the start of the month, signaling one of the few recent breaks below the short-term holders’ cost-basis band. With Bitcoin hovering around the mid-$87,000 range, historic seasonality has “failed to hold up” this quarter, they said.
Capitulation Builds as High-Price Buyers Exit
A major factor behind the downturn is what analysts describe as “market froth.” Heavy buying at the $106,000–$118,000 range earlier in the year has left a deep layer of investors now selling at a loss. Those who entered during the optimistic peaks appear to be capitulating, pressuring prices further.
Short-term holders—those holding BTC for under 155 days—currently sit near an average realized price around $86,800. Price dips below this level have historically signaled exhaustion but also potential buying opportunities.
🚨LOOK AT THE DATA. NOT THE FEAR:
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) November 3, 2025
OCTOBER WAS RED. SENTIMENT IS DEAD.
BUT NOVEMBER HAS BEEN BITCOIN’S STRONGEST MONTH
WITH AN AVERAGE RETURN OF +42.5%.
LOW SENTIMENT. BULLISH SEASONALITY.
THE PERFECT SETUP.
MARKETS DON’T REWARD EMOTION.
THEY REWARD PATIENCE AND POSITIONING. pic.twitter.com/uWemVrLdeG
Whale Wallets Quietly Re-Awaken
Despite the gloomy sentiment, a subtle but critical shift is emerging. Data from sentiment trackers shows the number of wallets holding 100+ BTC has risen steadily in recent weeks. Though modest, the uptick suggests larger players are positioning ahead of a possible demand resurgence.
Also Read: JPMorgan Faces Bitcoin Backlash: Boycotts and Account Closures Surge
Bitfinex analysts say the market now stands at a crossroads: either buyers return aggressively, sparking a recovery, or Bitcoin enters a deeper accumulation phase heading into December—a month that typically delivers quieter, single-digit gains.
While Bitcoin’s famed November rally has faltered, structural signals—especially renewed whale interest—hint that demand may not be far behind. Whether this marks the start of a rebound or a longer consolidation period, investors are watching closely as seasonal patterns continue to break.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
