In a gripping first debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have outshone former President Donald Trump, according to betting trends on Polymarket. Despite Harris’ apparent edge, the race for the White House remains neck and neck, with both candidates’ odds in the election market showing minimal difference.
The debate, held on Tuesday, saw Harris’ performance slightly boosting her chances in the Polymarket contract for the election, though the candidates remain effectively tied. This debate, the second of the 2024 election cycle, notably omitted discussions on cryptocurrency and broader technological or financial issues—topics that many expected to be addressed given their increasing relevance.
Crypto Policy Ignored
As the debate unfolded, both candidates focused on traditional economic issues. Trump reiterated his stance on tariffs, claiming he would reinstate “substantial tariffs,” a move he argued would benefit the U.S. economy. Harris countered by highlighting the trade deficit left by the Trump administration, calling it “one of the highest we’ve seen in history.”
Interestingly, the absence of crypto discussion was a missed opportunity for deeper insights into each candidate’s stance on digital assets, despite growing market interest. Crypto enthusiasts had hoped for some mention of policies affecting the industry, but their hopes were dashed as the debate remained fixated on more conventional economic topics.
Polymarket’s Buzz
The night was lively on Polymarket, where bettors had been closely watching the candidates’ performance. The debate began with an unexpected handshake between Harris and Trump—a gesture seen only once before in 2016 during the Trump-Clinton debates. This handshake, coupled with a busy night for bettors, highlighted a significant moment for market participants.
Betting markets had pegged the probability of a handshake at 30%, with $360,000 in stakes. The handshake’s occurrence was a notable event, further intensifying market activity.
In a surprising twist, bettors had anticipated minimal chances for crypto or bitcoin mentions, with only a 26% chance for Trump and 14% for Harris. The debate didn’t address these topics, but one Polymarket user, “trumpisreal,” capitalized on Trump’s mention of “Springfield” and “Cat,” referencing debunked claims about migrant-related incidents. This user won over $10,000 in USDC for their accurate prediction.
Swift Endorsement and Market Reactions
Following the debate, pop icon Taylor Swift endorsed Harris, praising her as a champion for causes she believes in. This endorsement may add to Harris’ momentum, aligning with Polymarket’s predictions that she won the debate. Bettors are confident, giving Harris a 98% chance of being declared the debate’s winner, contingent on a favorable Ipsos/538 poll.
As the debate results settle and the markets adjust, the absence of crypto discourse remains a talking point. With both candidates showing resilience in the election odds, the focus will soon shift to how they address emerging issues in future debates and how these topics might influence their campaign strategies.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
About The Author
