Dogecoin ETF Update: 21Shares Files as Whales Dump and Miners Accumulate

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21Shares filed for a Dogecoin [DOGE] exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 9. This follows similar filings by Grayscale and Bitwise earlier in Q1 2025, intensifying the competition to launch the first U.S. spot memecoin ETF.

Back in February, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas placed DOGE ETF approval odds at 75%, with prediction market Polymarket echoing that optimism. However, current betting activity on Polymarket reflects tempered confidence, with approval odds down to 64%—a sign of growing uncertainty in regulatory circles or shifting market sentiment.

Despite the growing institutional push, the on-chain and retail indicators paint a fragmented picture for DOGE. Since March, DOGE miners have quietly shifted into accumulation mode, increasing their holdings from 831 million to 907 million tokens. This trend contrasts sharply with their earlier sell-off between December and February.

Yet, retail interest appears lukewarm. Social volume and active user metrics remain subdued, even as miners re-enter the scene. Adding to the bearish outlook, large DOGE holders—wallets holding over 1 billion tokens—have consistently offloaded since December. Their continued selling pressure could weigh heavily on DOGE’s recovery potential.

DOGE’s price trajectory also raises concerns. The token has retraced all its gains from the U.S. election cycle and now trades near $0.15, a level that served as support in March. A breakdown below this zone could open the door to further declines toward $0.10 or even $0.06. Conversely, a strong bullish reversal above the 200-day moving average near $0.25 could reestablish market momentum.

With regulatory decisions looming and market signals diverging, DOGE stands at a pivotal crossroads. The outcome of the ETF race could redefine its trajectory in 2025—but only if the broader market and major holders align.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.

Also Read: 21Shares Files for Dogecoin ETF with SEC as DOGE Price Eyes $1 Rally