Cardano (ADA) is gearing up for the Chang hard fork, an event that some analysts believe could trigger a surge in its price. However, historical performance paints a more nuanced picture.
IntoTheBlock, a blockchain analytics platform, recently pointed out on X (formerly Twitter) that Cardano’s previous hard fork, the Alonzo upgrade in August 2021, witnessed a 130% price increase from $1.35 to $3.10. This has fueled speculation of similar gains for the Chang hard fork.
But is a repeat performance guaranteed? Not necessarily. Here’s a closer look:
Hard Forks and Price Swings Reveals A Mixed Bag
While the Alonzo hard fork did trigger a price surge, the subsequent Valentine upgrade in February 2023 paints a different picture. Launched during a bear market, it resulted in a modest 16.9% gain for ADA holders over two days, followed by a disheartening 28.5% drop in just three weeks. This highlights the influence of broader market sentiment and the specific functionalities introduced by the upgrade.
Similarly, the Vasil hard fork in September 2022 saw an initial 11.1% price increase, but this was short-lived as the downtrend resumed.
Cardano’s Current Landscape Bullish Signs with Cautious Notes
Development activity for Cardano has been steadily rising since February, a positive indicator for long-term investors. However, some metrics raise cautionary flags.
The daily active addresses, signifying user engagement, haven’t shown significant growth since late April. This lack of participation could dampen demand for ADA.
Another concern is the falling mean coin age, which suggests a distribution phase where holders are selling their tokens. This, coupled with a slightly negative 90-day MVRV ratio (indicating that the average holder is at a slight loss), suggests a lack of strong bullish conviction.
Also Read: Cardano on the Brink of Decentralization As Chang Hard Fork Nears with Key Hurdles
The Verdict: A Wait-and-See Approach
While the Chang hard fork holds promise for Cardano’s future, historical data suggests price gains aren’t guaranteed. Reviving investor enthusiasm and increasing buying volume are crucial for a significant price rally.
For now, a wait-and-see approach seems prudent. Keeping a close eye on user engagement, development progress, and overall market sentiment will be key to understanding the impact of the Chang hard fork on Cardano’s price.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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