Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Isn’t Dead — Human Psychology Still Rules the Market, Says Xapo CEO

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Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s four-year cycle isn’t dead, according to Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca, who argues institutional presence hasn’t erased historical patterns.
• Market cycles are rooted in human psychology, not structural changes, say analysts like Aleksandar Svetski and Matthew Kratter.
• Future downturns may emerge organically, with overleveraged Bitcoin treasury firms posing a potential risk if not managed through equity financing.

Despite claims that institutional adoption has altered Bitcoin’s market behavior, Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca believes the cryptocurrency’s historic four-year cycle is far from over. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Rocca emphasized that future downturns may arise organically—driven by human behavior rather than external shocks.

Institutions Haven’t Killed the Bitcoin Cycle

Some market participants argue that the traditional boom-and-bust rhythm tied to Bitcoin’s halving events no longer applies. The rise of institutional investors, increased market maturity, and broader mainstream acceptance have fueled this belief. However, Rocca remains skeptical.

“So many people are saying, ‘Oh, the institutions are here, and, therefore, the cyclical sort of nature of Bitcoin is dead.’ I’m not sure I agree with that,” he said.

Rocca’s stance is echoed by Bitcoin analyst Matthew Kratter and The Bushido of Bitcoin author Aleksandar Svetski. Both stress that human psychology remains the primary driver of Bitcoin cycles, not market structure or institutional presence.

Cycles Are Psychological, Not Technical

Svetski, in a June 15 post on X, stated, “Human psychology will never change. Cycles have nothing to do with Bitcoin and everything to do with people. The same boom and crash will happen this time.”

This argument draws on decades of financial market behavior, where fear and greed repeatedly produce bubbles and crashes, regardless of technological or structural changes.

Risk of Organic Downturns and Overleveraging

While Rocca doesn’t foresee a single catastrophic event triggering the next downturn, other risks remain. VC firm Breed warned that overleveraged Bitcoin treasury firms could unintentionally spark a bear market. Still, the firm noted that if most of these companies continue using equity—not debt—to buy Bitcoin, systemic contagion would likely be limited.

Maturity Doesn’t Eliminate Volatility

Despite growing institutional participation, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle appears resilient. Experts suggest that behavioral patterns—fueled by mass psychology—still underpin market movements. As such, investors should remain cautious and avoid assuming that structural shifts have erased historical volatility.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.