Bitcoin Year-End Forecast Slashed to $120K: Analysts Weigh Risks and Recovery

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• Galaxy Research cuts BTC target to $120K.
  
• Options markets favor $120K calls, but downside risk remains.
  
• Analysts expect liquidity recovery to support November rebound.

The cryptocurrency market faces fresh uncertainty as Galaxy Research cuts its year-end Bitcoin (BTC) forecast. Previously eyeing $185K, the firm now projects a more modest $120K by December, marking a 35% downgrade. Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s Head of Firmwide Research, attributed the revision to massive whale distribution, challenges faced by BTC treasury companies, and growing competition from other crypto narratives.

i’m lowering my BTC bullish EOY target to $120k (prev $185k) 👀

just sent this note to clients

whale distribution, non-BTC investments, treasury company malaise, and other factors contributed to BTC headwinds in 25

(long-term future still bullish, of course) pic.twitter.com/2aj1eoJlno

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) November 5, 2025

While the optimism for Bitcoin hitting $150K–$200K in 2025 appears overstretched, analysts emphasize that the long-term bullish trend remains intact, despite recent setbacks.

Market Volatility and BTC’s Recent Drop

BTC’s price continued its correction, reaching $98.9K on November 4, a level last seen in June. This 22% decline from October’s $126K peak still falls short of the typical 30% pullbacks common in bull markets. Currently, Bitcoin has stabilized above $100K, trading at $103.4K, showing signs of resilience.

Options market data further illustrate mixed sentiment. Call options targeting $120K dominate, followed by $115K and $112K levels, reflecting ongoing bullish bets. However, a Put/Call ratio of 0.61 signals that while investors lean toward upside, many are hedging against a dip below $100K.

Analyst Insights and Recovery Signs

Renowned BTC analyst Willy Woo notes that liquidity behind Bitcoin is rebounding, potentially fueling a price surge in the latter half of November. Meanwhile, Galaxy founder Mike Novogratz expects BTC to climb beyond its October peak, citing potential dovish policies from a new Federal Reserve chair as a catalyst.

Also Read: Bitcoin Bulls Stalled by ‘Insane’ Sell Wall — Analysts Say Price Could Dive Before Rebound

Novogratz considers the ongoing sell-off by long-term holders a healthy rebalancing move. While short-term volatility remains, the broader trajectory suggests mid- to long-term gains could still materialize, reinforcing cautious optimism among traders and investors alike.

Despite the tempered year-end targets and recent market turbulence, Bitcoin retains long-term bullish potential. Investors are watching closely, balancing hope for a $120K rebound with protective strategies against further declines. In volatile markets like crypto, prudence and patience remain key.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.