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- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could hit $1M within 10 years if it captures a portion of the growing store-of-value market.
- The global store-of-value market could expand to $121 trillion, making a smaller Bitcoin share sufficient for huge price gains.
- Institutional adoption and Bitcoin ETFs are accelerating the asset’s mainstream investment appeal.
Bitcoin may have a long road ahead, but some analysts believe its long-term potential remains enormous. According to a recent investor memo from Matt Hougan, the leading cryptocurrency could reach $1 million per coin within the next decade if it secures a modest share of the global store-of-value market.
Currently trading near $69,600, Bitcoin would need to rise roughly 14 times from today’s levels to achieve that milestone. While that target may appear ambitious, Hougan argues the math behind the projection becomes more realistic when considering the growth of the broader store-of-value market.
Bitcoin vs. Gold in the Store-of-Value Race
Hougan suggests Bitcoin should be evaluated primarily as a digital store-of-value asset, placing it in direct competition with Gold rather than traditional currencies.
According to estimates from Bitwise Asset Management, the current global store-of-value market is valued at about $38 trillion. The vast majority—around $36 trillion—is tied to gold, while Bitcoin represents roughly $1.4 trillion, giving it less than 4% of the total market.
If the market remained the same size, Bitcoin would need to capture more than half of that value to reach $1 million per coin. Hougan acknowledged that scenario would be extremely difficult.
However, he believes many analysts overlook a critical factor: the market itself continues to grow.
A Rapidly Expanding Market
History suggests the store-of-value sector can expand dramatically. When the first U.S. gold exchange-traded fund launched in 2004, the global gold market was worth roughly $2.5 trillion. Today it has grown to nearly $40 trillion, representing an annual growth rate of about 13%.
If that pace continues, Hougan estimates the store-of-value market could expand to roughly $121 trillion within the next decade.
In that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the market to reach a $1 million price tag—an outcome he believes is far more plausible.
Institutional Adoption Gains Momentum
A key driver behind that potential growth is rising institutional participation. Hougan pointed out that just a few years ago there were no U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and limited institutional ownership.
Today, funds like the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from BlackRock have become some of the fastest-growing ETFs in history.
Bitcoin exposure has also spread across major institutions, including university endowments and sovereign wealth funds. As volatility has gradually declined, many professional investors are now considering allocations of around 5% to the digital asset.
Recent ETF flows also hint at shifting investor sentiment. Over the past month, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows, reversing earlier withdrawals.
Not everyone is convinced the next major rally will happen soon. Arthur Hayes recently said he would avoid buying Bitcoin at current prices, arguing that markets may need a fresh wave of global liquidity before another surge.
Hayes believes aggressive monetary easing from central banks—especially the Federal Reserve—could serve as the key catalyst.
Meanwhile, analyst PlanB maintains that Bitcoin’s scarcity-based Stock-to-Flow model still supports prices averaging around $500,000 during the current market cycle, with potential peaks approaching $1 million.
Also Read: Bitcoin Beats Gold Again: Is BTC Preparing for Its Next Big Run?
While a $1 million Bitcoin remains a bold prediction, the argument highlights a broader shift in how investors view the asset. If Bitcoin continues gaining institutional support and captures even a modest portion of the expanding store-of-value market, the path toward dramatically higher prices may not be as unrealistic as it once seemed.
For now, the debate continues—but Bitcoin’s role in global finance appears to be steadily growing.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
