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- Bitcoin’s NUPL metric shows a shift from optimism to euphoria.
- Short-term holders now control 44% of realized cap, signaling late-cycle activity.
- Institutional inflows may stabilize volatility despite nearing a potential top.
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Bitcoin (BTC) may be approaching the climax of its current bull cycle, according to new on-chain research by CryptoQuant. The analytics firm’s latest data suggests the market is transitioning from optimism to euphoria — a stage that historically precedes major tops.
As of this week, Bitcoin trades around $111,764, with roughly 97% of the circulating supply in profit. This high profitability, analysts say, reflects growing market confidence but also hints that further gains may be limited without a correction.
NUPL Metric Crosses the Euphoria Threshold
CryptoQuant’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has reached +0.52, a level that marked euphoric peaks during Bitcoin’s 2017 and 2021 cycles. A reading above 0.5 typically signals that most investors are sitting on profits, triggering speculative buying behavior.
“Bitcoin is showing the same emotional cycle pattern — from optimism to euphoria,” said XWIN Research Japan, a CryptoQuant contributor. “While the market remains strong, the next phase could bring short-term volatility before stabilization.”
Short-Term Holders Dominate Realized Cap
Another key signal is the rising influence of short-term holders (STHs) — those who’ve held BTC for less than 155 days. STHs now control 44% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization, a record share that often aligns with late-stage bull markets.
Historically, this transition from long-term to short-term holder dominance has occurred near final expansion phases, when experienced investors take profit and newer participants absorb supply.
Institutional Inflows Reshape the Cycle
Unlike previous rallies, analysts note that institutional inflows and ETF-driven demand are cushioning volatility. CryptoQuant points out that growing stablecoin liquidity and ETF participation are helping absorb sell pressure, creating a more “stable euphoria.”
However, the report warns that a decline in STH dominance would mark the start of a new accumulation phase — signaling long-term holders are re-entering the market.
Bitcoin’s on-chain data paints a picture of a maturing bull market nearing its speculative peak. While institutional participation is providing stability, the emotional cycle of retail investors remains a driving force. A sustained shift in holding patterns will reveal whether this “final expansion” becomes another historic top — or the foundation for Bitcoin’s next evolution.
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Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
Also Read: Powell Signals Dovish Fed, Bitcoin Surges Above $112K Amid Rate Cut Hopes
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