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Bitcoin (BTC) is facing mounting pressure as “higher than expected” U.S. trade tariffs spark uncertainty in financial markets. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, has raised concerns over Bitcoin’s vulnerability to escalating trade policies, warning that BTC/USD could slump to $71,000 if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further.
Consider this as tariffs come in higher than expected.
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 3, 2025
The Phily Fed Business Outlook survey is showing expectations today comparable to 2000, 2008 and 2022.
How long until the Powell printer starts humming?
Discussed in @capriole_fund's update last week. pic.twitter.com/HNLJ8hgyWn
Bitcoin Reacts to Trade Tariff Uncertainty
On April 2, Bitcoin witnessed a sharp decline of 8.5% following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of global reciprocal trade tariffs. In contrast, the S&P 500 ended the Wall Street trading session with a modest 0.7% gain, highlighting Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts.
Edwards noted that the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has fallen below 15 for the first time since early 2024. Historically, similar readings in 2000, 2008, and 2022 coincided with periods of severe financial market downturns.
“While no guarantee of future performance, this indicator has appeared in previous high-risk zones, suggesting caution,” Edwards shared with his X followers. He emphasized that escalating trade disputes or shrinking corporate margins could exacerbate market turbulence.
Key Levels to Watch: $91K and $71K
Capriole’s latest market analysis points to $91,000 as a critical resistance level for Bitcoin. A daily close above this threshold could signal a bullish reversal. However, failing to hold above key support levels could push BTC towards the $71,000 mark, where a strong rebound is expected.
Liquidity Trends Offer a Silver Lining
Despite bearish signals, analysts see a potential recovery fueled by increasing global liquidity. The Federal Reserve has already started easing tight financial policies, hinting at a shift towards quantitative easing (QE).
Colin Talks Crypto, a prominent analyst, noted that M2 money supply is set for an “influx,” historically leading to major Bitcoin rallies. His analysis suggests BTC could rebound as early as May, contingent on liquidity expansion.
Global M2 Money Supply vs Bitcoin
— Colin Talks Crypto 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) April 1, 2025
77-day vs 108-day M2 offset. Which will it be?
Notes:
🔹 The BIG take-away (the most important observation) is that a big M2 influx is coming. The exact date is less important.
🔹The M2 pump lasts for 2 months.
🔹Mathematical correlation… pic.twitter.com/faZ86DEfSL
As Bitcoin navigates these volatile conditions, traders should keep a close eye on macroeconomic developments, particularly U.S. trade policies and Federal Reserve actions, which could define Bitcoin’s next major price movement.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
Also Read: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Rebound as Institutions Buy the Dip
I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!
