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- Rising volatility suggests Bitcoin’s downtrend may still be building momentum.
- Institutional flows and macro liquidity remain major market drivers.
- Analysts warn the market could be entering a tougher second phase of the cycle.
Bitcoin is once again struggling to find direction, trading in a narrow band near the $67,000–$70,000 range as investor sentiment weakens and institutional flows remain under pressure. Continued ETF outflows, macro liquidity concerns, and persistent large-holder selling have combined to keep the market on edge, reinforcing fears that the current downturn may have further to run.
Adding to the cautious mood, on-chain analyst Willy Woo recently argued that Bitcoin’s bear trend is strengthening rather than fading. His assessment centers on rising volatility — a signal quantitative traders often use to identify sustained directional shifts.
Volatility Signals a Strengthening Downtrend
Woo notes that Bitcoin’s current volatility pattern resembles the early stages of previous bear markets. Historically, a sharp jump in volatility tends to mark the start of a prolonged downturn. When volatility continues climbing afterward, it often suggests that selling pressure is still building rather than exhausting itself.
According to Woo, a true transition toward recovery typically comes only after volatility peaks and begins to ease — something he believes has not yet occurred. His data-driven view challenges the widespread narrative that the recent pullback is merely a temporary correction inside a broader bull cycle.
Traders Split Between Caution and Optimism
Despite the bearish signals, many market participants remain hopeful. Technical traders point to the $65,000–$68,000 zone as a potential support area that could spark a rebound. Others are watching closely for renewed institutional demand or macroeconomic shifts that might inject fresh liquidity into the crypto sector.
Current price levels still sit well above February’s deeper lows near $59,800, leaving room for bulls to argue that the broader uptrend remains intact. Market data from TradingView also shows that trading activity remains strong, suggesting investors are still actively positioning for the next move.
Woo’s Three-Phase Bear Market Framework
Woo describes bear markets as unfolding in three stages. The first involves declining liquidity and the start of a price downtrend — the phase he believes Bitcoin is now exiting. The second phase typically arrives when broader equity markets weaken, dragging risk assets lower. The final phase occurs when liquidity stabilizes and investors begin re-entering the market after capitulation.
Also Read: Eric Trump Predicts $1M Bitcoin — Is Wall Street’s Crypto Push the Real Catalyst?
If Woo’s framework proves accurate, Bitcoin may be approaching a more challenging macro-driven stage before any sustained recovery begins.
Bitcoin’s outlook remains uncertain as volatility rises and institutional flows stay muted. While some traders continue to anticipate a rebound, Woo’s analysis suggests the market may still be early in a broader bearish cycle. For now, the tug-of-war between weakening sentiment and lingering optimism is likely to keep Bitcoin trading in a volatile, unpredictable range.
`Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.`
I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!
