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- $4B in BTC and ETH options expire this week, sparking volatility fears.
- Bearish sentiment grows despite recent crypto price rallies.
- Analysts still expect upside from ETF inflows and Fed rate cuts.
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Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices have rallied sharply after weaker U.S. jobs data and cooling inflation boosted expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the crypto market now faces a pivotal moment, with over $4 billion in BTC and ETH options set to expire on September 12 — a key event that could trigger heightened volatility.
$3.22B in Bitcoin Options Expiring With Bearish Tilt
According to data from Deribit, more than 28,000 BTC options contracts worth $3.22 billion will expire on September 12. The current put-call ratio sits at 1.23, signaling unexpectedly rising bearish bets despite BTC recently breaking above $114,000 for the first time in three weeks.
Put option volume has reached 14,972 compared to 14,040 call contracts, pushing the real-time put/call ratio to 1.06. The “max pain” price — where most options would expire worthless — is at $112,000, suggesting traders may attempt to push BTC lower toward that level. Notably, large put concentrations are clustered around the $100,000–$108,000 strike range.
ETH Options Show Rising Bearish Sentiment
Alongside Bitcoin, over 185,000 ETH options worth $820 million are also due to expire. The put-call ratio stands at 0.97, but has recently spiked to 1.50 as put volume surged to 106,987 versus 71,691 calls.
ETH’s max pain level is at $4,400 — just below its current price of $4,430. Although call bets at the $4,400 strike total $37.5 million compared to $11.3 million in puts, the rise in bearish positioning suggests some traders expect a short-term pullback.
Market Outlook: Rally or Reversal?
Despite this options expiry pressure, analysts remain optimistic about medium-term price action. They cite strong ETF inflows, the potential for Fed rate cuts as soon as next week, and bullish technical chart patterns such as Bitcoin’s recent triangle breakout.
Currently, BTC trades near $114,000 while ETH hovers around $4,430, both benefiting from softer U.S. PPI data. Still, implied volatility is declining, indicating that options traders foresee relatively muted price swings ahead.
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Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
Also Read: Bitcoin Eyes $160K as Rare MACD Golden Cross Sparks Bullish September Rally
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