Avalanche Jumps 13% After CME Futures News—But Can AVAX Break $9.60?

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• AVAX surged 13% בעקבות CME futures announcement but failed to break $9.60 resistance.
  
• Strong spot buying contrasts with weak leverage, signaling cautious market sentiment.
  
• Short-term pullback toward $9 or $8.30 remains likely without a breakout.

Avalanche (AVAX) posted a sharp 13.7% rally within 18 hours on April 7, climbing from $8.46 to $9.62 as trading volumes surged. The move followed news that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group plans to launch AVAX futures in May—an announcement that injected fresh optimism into the market. However, despite the bullish catalyst, technical signals suggest the rally may be running out of steam.

Spot Demand Strong, But Leverage Lags

Market data reveals a disconnect between price action and speculative interest. While spot buying activity strengthened significantly during the latest rally, Open Interest (OI) rose only modestly. This suggests that leveraged traders were hesitant to fully commit, even as prices climbed.

At the same time, funding rates turned negative, indicating a bias toward short positions in derivatives markets. Yet, strong spot demand—reflected in rising cumulative volume delta (CVD)—helped sustain the upward move. This divergence points to cautious optimism rather than full-fledged bullish conviction.

Key Resistance Holds Firm at $9.60

Despite the surge in buying pressure, AVAX failed to break through the critical $9.45–$9.60 supply zone. This level has repeatedly acted as resistance, with sellers stepping in aggressively during recent tests.

On the daily chart, the broader market structure remains bearish. Indicators like the Money Flow Index (MFI) show improving momentum, but the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains in negative territory, signaling ongoing capital outflows. The inability to reclaim the $10.34 level from March further reinforces seller dominance.

Short-Term Pullback Risks Increase

Lower timeframes highlight growing signs of exhaustion among buyers. A spike in volume near $9.60 suggests that bulls may have overextended themselves attempting a breakout. With momentum indicators turning bearish in the short term, AVAX appears locked in a range between $8.56 and $9.46.

Repeated rejections near the range high increase the likelihood of a pullback. Traders should watch the $9 and $8.30 levels as potential downside targets if selling pressure persists.

Beyond altcoins, Bitcoin (BTC) is drawing attention for its geopolitical role. Iran is reportedly considering BTC payments for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the asset as a censorship-resistant settlement tool. At current rates, a single oil tanker could require roughly 281 BTC in tolls—highlighting the scale of potential demand.

Also Read: AVAX Whales Are Buying the Dip — Is Avalanche Preparing for a Major Rally?

While some industry voices see this as a step toward Bitcoin’s global monetary relevance, skeptics question the lack of on-chain proof. Still, the development underscores Bitcoin’s growing use case in sanction-sensitive regions.

Avalanche’s recent rally reflects renewed interest driven by institutional developments, but underlying market signals remain mixed. Strong spot demand contrasts with weak leverage participation, and key resistance levels continue to cap gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s evolving geopolitical role adds a broader layer of intrigue to the crypto market. For AVAX, a decisive breakout above $9.60 is needed to shift momentum—until then, caution remains warranted.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.