Bitcoin at Risk? CryptoQuant Warns of Major Bear Market Signal Returning

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• CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average may signal a renewed downtrend.
  
• Traders realized nearly $1.2 billion in Bitcoin profits as selling pressure increased.
  
• Some analysts still expect Bitcoin to rally toward $90,000 on regulatory and macro catalysts.

Bitcoin is once again approaching a crucial technical level that previously signaled the start of a deeper market decline, according to new analysis from crypto intelligence platform CryptoQuant. The warning comes as traders remain divided over whether Bitcoin is preparing for another breakout or heading into a fresh downtrend.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency recently rallied from roughly $66,000 in early April to test its 200-day moving average near $82,400 — a level analysts say has historically acted as a major resistance zone during bear markets. After briefly touching that level, Bitcoin slipped back to around $79,300, triggering renewed concerns about profit-taking and weakening momentum.

CryptoQuant Sees Similarities to 2022 Market Structure

CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s current setup closely resembles price action seen in March 2022, when the asset failed to break above its 200-day moving average before entering a prolonged decline.

Adding to the bearish case, unrealized trader profit margins climbed to 17.7% earlier this month, the highest reading since mid-2025. According to the firm, such elevated profit levels often encourage traders to lock in gains, increasing selling pressure across the market.

The report also pointed to a surge in realized profits. On May 4 alone, traders reportedly sold nearly 14,600 Bitcoin worth close to $1.2 billion. Historically, spikes of that scale have often appeared near local market tops during temporary rallies.

If selling accelerates further, CryptoQuant believes the next major support level sits near $70,000, which reflects the average on-chain purchase price for many short-term holders.

Inflation Data Adds Pressure to Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s latest decline also followed hotter-than-expected US inflation data. Producer prices in April posted their largest increase in four years, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains persistent despite hopes for economic easing.

As institutional adoption grows, Bitcoin has become increasingly tied to broader macroeconomic conditions and Wall Street sentiment. Rising inflation expectations often create volatility across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Still, not everyone is bearish.

Analysts Remain Optimistic on Long-Term Outlook

Several market analysts continue to forecast higher prices later this year. Michaël van de Poppe recently suggested Bitcoin could rapidly move toward $90,000 if the US Senate advances the proposed CLARITY Act, a major crypto regulatory bill.

Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes argued that growing geopolitical tensions and additional monetary expansion could eventually drive Bitcoin back toward new all-time highs.

Also Read: Metaplanet Reports $14M Operating Profit Despite Massive $728M Bitcoin Loss

At the same time, Bitcoin-focused firm Nakamoto reported a 500% jump in quarterly revenue following acquisitions of BTC Inc. and UTXO Management. Despite a substantial quarterly loss tied largely to Bitcoin price declines, the company said it remains committed to expanding its Bitcoin ecosystem strategy.

Bitcoin now sits at a pivotal moment. Technical indicators suggest the market could be vulnerable to another correction, particularly as traders take profits and inflation concerns weigh on sentiment. However, long-term bulls still see regulatory progress, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic uncertainty as powerful catalysts for future growth.

Whether Bitcoin repeats the pattern of 2022 or resumes its climb toward new highs may depend on how traders respond to these competing forces in the weeks ahead.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.