Brazil Shuts Down 27 Prediction Market Platforms in Sweeping Regulatory Crackdown

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• Brazil has blocked 27 prediction market platforms — including Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt — under new rules that classify event-based contracts as gambling rather than financial products.
• Only contracts tied to economic indicators like inflation, interest rates, and commodity prices remain legal; all sports, political, and social event contracts are now banned.
• Brazil joins France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and others in cracking down on prediction markets, as regulators worldwide struggle to define and control the fast-growing sector.

Brazil has pulled the plug on 27 prediction market platforms — including global names like Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Robinhood’s forecasting feature — in one of the most aggressive regulatory actions the sector has seen to date.

The move, announced on a Friday and enforced by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) at the direction of the Ministry of Finance, stems from a core argument: most of what these platforms offer looks more like gambling than financial activity. Under Brazil’s newly enacted Resolution 5.298, issued by the National Monetary Council (CMN) and set to take effect in early May, contracts tied to sports outcomes, political events, entertainment, or social phenomena are now explicitly prohibited.

Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan framed the crackdown as a long-overdue correction. Speaking at a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto, he described the period from 2018 to 2022 as one of effective “anarchy” — a stretch during which the prediction market sector operated in Brazil with no meaningful oversight or regulatory framework.

What’s Banned, and What Survives

The new rules draw a sharp line between speculation on real-world outcomes and legitimate financial forecasting. Contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are out. What remains permissible are contracts linked to genuine economic indicators — think inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices. These fall under standard financial market oversight and are not affected by the ban.

The list of blocked platforms spans both international heavyweights and Brazil-specific services. Alongside Kalshi and Polymarket, the shutdown targets ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange, Stride, and Fanatics Markets. Several homegrown platforms — Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred among them — are also caught in the net.

Debt Concerns Drive the Policy Rationale

Beyond the question of legal classification, Brazilian officials tied the ban directly to concerns about household debt. Durigan argued that prediction markets carry real financial risk for ordinary users and could deepen indebtedness among families, small businesses, and students — groups the government says it is actively trying to protect.

Whether that framing holds up to scrutiny is debatable, given that many prediction market platforms operate more like financial instruments than traditional gambling sites. But it has proven politically effective, aligning the crackdown with broader government messaging on economic protection.

Brazil Joins a Widening Global Push

Brazil is not acting alone. Several European countries — including France, Belgium, and the Netherlands — have already moved to block or penalize prediction market platforms operating without proper authorization. In the United States, the regulatory picture remains fragmented, with federal bodies and individual states locked in an ongoing dispute over how to classify and govern these markets, as Arizona courts weigh in on whether platforms like Kalshi cross into gambling territory.

Also Read: Kalshi Wins Big: Court Greenlights Sports Prediction Markets in New Jersey

The Brazilian action signals that prediction markets, which gained significant traction in the U.S. around the 2024 election cycle, are entering a more hostile global regulatory environment. For platforms looking to expand internationally, the message is clear: classification matters, and the gambling label carries serious consequences.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.