XRP Faces 50% Crash Risk as Key Support Cracks — Here’s What the Charts Show

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• XRP is trading near its aggregated realized price around $1.48.
  
• Whale distribution and low stablecoin inflows pressure recovery attempts.
  
• A break below $1.43 could open the door to a drop toward $1.

XRP is under renewed pressure after suffering its steepest weekly decline since late 2025, a move that has traders drawing uncomfortable parallels to the brutal downturn seen in 2022. While broader crypto markets remain choppy, a mix of technical fragility, whale distribution, and weakening liquidity conditions is intensifying concerns that XRP could face deeper losses before finding a stable base.

At the same time, global regulators are sharpening their surveillance tools. South Korea’s financial watchdog recently expanded its use of artificial intelligence to detect potential market manipulation in digital assets, highlighting how oversight is becoming more data-driven as volatility rises.

XRP’s Selloff Mirrors a Past Bear-Market Pattern

XRP recently slipped to around $1.60 after dropping more than 20% in a week, marking its sharpest weekly decline in months. The move has brought price close to its aggregated realized price near $1.48 — a level representing the average cost basis of all XRP in circulation.

When price hovers near this metric, it often signals stress among newer holders. Many buyers from the past year are now sitting at a loss, a setup that closely resembles conditions seen during XRP’s 2022 bear phase. Back then, a breakdown below realized price eventually preceded a drawdown of roughly 50%.

The danger zone is now clearly defined: a decisive break under $1.48 would push the average holder underwater, potentially triggering additional selling pressure.

Whale Selling Adds Overhead Supply

On-chain data shows XRP’s 90-day whale flow remains negative, meaning large holders are still distributing rather than accumulating. This matters because when whales sell into weakness, it increases the amount of supply that must be absorbed before any meaningful recovery can take hold.

With many newer investors already in the red, continued whale selling raises the risk of shallow bounces that quickly fade.

Stablecoin Outflows Weaken Buying Power

Another headwind comes from the broader liquidity environment. Stablecoin flows into exchanges turned sharply negative toward the end of 2025, signaling less capital available for spot buying across crypto markets.

Although outflows moderated slightly in January, net flows remain negative. Fewer stablecoins sitting on exchanges generally translate into reduced buying pressure — making it harder for assets like XRP to reclaim key levels.

Technically, XRP is hovering near its 100-period two-week exponential moving average around $1.43, a zone that overlaps with the $1.43–$1.48 support band. This area has historically acted as a pivot during major trend shifts.

Also Read: Inside the Viral XRP Conspiracy: What’s Real and What Isn’t

If XRP holds this range and momentum stabilizes, consolidation could last for several weeks before a potential recovery attempt later in Q1 or Q2. However, a clean breakdown below this support opens the door to a move toward the 200-period two-week EMA near $1 — roughly 36% below current prices.

XRP is approaching a make-or-break moment. Persistent whale selling, weak liquidity conditions, and a fragile technical structure all tilt risks to the downside. While a bounce remains possible if key support holds, a failure to defend the $1.43–$1.48 zone would significantly increase the probability of a deeper slide. For now, XRP traders are watching the same question: can history be avoided, or is another 2022-style drop unfolding?

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.