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- Traders see Bitcoin’s recent bounce as a reset, not a reversal.
- A drop toward $76,000 is back on the table if key support fails.
- Long-term forecasts still point to major upside driven by global adoption.
Bitcoin’s latest rebound is failing to convince traders. After briefly pushing toward $95,000, BTC has slipped back near its yearly open, with many analysts describing the move as a temporary reset rather than the start of a sustained recovery. While long-term forecasts remain strikingly bullish, near-term sentiment is firmly cautious.
Bears Tighten Grip on Short- and Long-Term Charts
Technical analysts say Bitcoin continues to show weakness across multiple timeframes. The rejection near $95,000 reinforced doubts about momentum, and attention has shifted to key support between roughly $87,500 and $89,000. A decisive loss of that zone could open the door to a deeper slide.
Several traders point to looming high-timeframe signals as a reason to stay defensive. A potential weekly “death cross” later this month has added to concerns that rallies may simply offer better selling opportunities. For now, many market participants see little evidence that the broader downtrend has ended.
$76,000 Target Back in Focus
Some traders are going further, reviving targets last seen in spring 2025. A move toward the mid-$70,000 range is increasingly discussed as sideways price action drags on. The argument is straightforward: without a clear reversal structure, consolidation may only delay another leg down.
Others note that January’s trading range looks fragile. Historically, monthly candles over the past two years have tended to probe lower before finding stability. From that perspective, a deeper dip could actually help Bitcoin form a more durable base — even if it brings short-term pain.
Long-Term Outlook: From Volatility to Global Settlement
While near-term charts look heavy, long-term forecasts tell a very different story. Asset manager VanEck recently outlined a base-case scenario in which Bitcoin reaches roughly $2.9 million by 2050. The projection assumes Bitcoin grows at a 15% annual rate and captures a meaningful share of global trade settlement.
Under this view, Bitcoin evolves beyond a speculative asset into a settlement layer for international and domestic transactions, potentially accounting for 5–10% of cross-border trade. Analysts also expect central banks to gradually add Bitcoin to reserves, positioning it as a hedge against debt expansion and currency debasement.
Also Read: Bitcoin vs. TRON: One Faces Fear, the Other Grows Quietly — Which Wins in 2026?
The contrast is stark. In the short run, traders remain focused on downside risks and unresolved technical weakness. Over decades, however, proponents see Bitcoin aligning with structural flaws in the global monetary system, gradually earning a role alongside major currencies.
For investors, the message is clear: Bitcoin’s long-term thesis may remain intact, but the path there is unlikely to be smooth. Volatility — and possibly lower prices — could still define the months ahead.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!
