Bitcoin Lags as $28B Options Expiry Shakes Thin Holiday Markets

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• Bitcoin remains under pressure amid thin liquidity and a major options expiry.
• ETF outflows signal defensive sentiment despite record highs in stocks and metals.
• Clearer direction may emerge once normal market conditions return in 2026.

Bitcoin is closing out the year under pressure, even as global markets rally to fresh highs. With holiday-thinned liquidity and a record crypto options expiry dominating short-term positioning, traders have largely stepped back from risk, leaving BTC lagging stocks and precious metals in the final days of 2025.

The contrast has been striking. While equities and metals push higher, bitcoin has drifted lower, caught in a defensive trading environment driven more by derivatives mechanics than long-term fundamentals.

Options Expiry Weighs on Short-Term Price Action

A massive crypto options expiry has become the focal point for traders, amplifying price swings in an already illiquid holiday market. With fewer participants active, even modest positioning adjustments have had an outsized impact on spot prices.

Bitcoin has struggled to regain traction above the $90,000 level, hovering well below its October peak. Analysts say upside attempts have repeatedly failed to gain momentum, reinforcing a cautious tone across the derivatives market.

In thin conditions, options-related hedging and gamma effects often dominate price action, and this expiry has been no exception. For now, traders appear more focused on managing exposure than chasing directional bets.

ETF Outflows Signal Defensive Investor Sentiment

Flows in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs reflect that caution. Funds have seen sustained outflows into year-end, suggesting institutional investors are rotating toward assets perceived as safer or more reliable hedges.

This pullback comes despite broader risk assets performing strongly. Instead of following equities higher, bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction, highlighting a divergence that has frustrated bullish investors expecting a synchronized year-end rally.

The broader crypto market has also felt the strain, with total market value shrinking notably over the past two months as capital exits the space.

Also Read: $219M Ethereum Move: Why Bitmine’s First ETH Staking Matters

Gold, Silver, and Stocks Steal the Spotlight

While bitcoin drifts, traditional hedges are thriving. Gold and silver have surged to record levels, fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, currency weakness, and expectations for looser monetary policy next year. Central-bank demand and ETF inflows have further strengthened the metals rally.

U.S. equities remain resilient as well. Major indexes continue to trade near all-time highs, supported by year-end momentum and investor optimism heading into 2026.

A Waiting Game for Bitcoin

For bitcoin, the message into year-end is clear: patience over prediction. With derivatives positioning and liquidity conditions driving near-term moves, meaningful direction may remain elusive until normal trading resumes. Whether bitcoin can rejoin the broader market rally will likely depend on fresh inflows and a clearer risk appetite in the new year.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.