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- Bitcoin is testing its True Market Mean near $81,500
- A whale moved 4,000 BTC to Binance, sparking sell-off fears
- Losing key support could signal a deeper market downturn
Bitcoin is approaching a decisive moment after slipping toward a key long-term support level, just as a large whale transfer to Binance raised concerns about renewed selling pressure. Market watchers say the coming days could determine whether Bitcoin stabilizes or enters a deeper corrective phase.
BTC recently hovered near its True Market Mean (TMM), a level many analysts view as a dividing line between bullish and bearish conditions.
$81,500 Emerges as Make-or-Break Support
On-chain data shows Bitcoin testing support near the True Market Mean, currently around $81,500. This metric, also known as the Active-Investor Price, reflects the average cost basis of actively traded coins, excluding long-dormant supply.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ described the level as a “psychological line in the sand.” Historically, Bitcoin has tended to trend higher when trading above this range. When the level is lost, however, it has often flipped into resistance as investors look to exit on rallies.
Past market cycles underscore the risk. In 2022, Bitcoin’s breakdown below a similar level was followed by a prolonged decline that lasted several months. Analysts warn that a failure to hold $81,500 could trigger a comparable search for lower support zones.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Rising Uncertainty
Additional caution comes from the AVIV Ratio, an indicator that compares active market valuation with realized valuation to gauge investor profitability. The ratio is now sitting near levels that have historically marked mid-cycle transitions.
According to CryptoQuant, such periods often involve extended consolidation before the market either forms a durable base or confirms a broader bear trend. With momentum fading, analysts say Bitcoin is entering a high-risk zone.
Whale Transfer Adds to Sell-Off Fears
Concerns intensified after blockchain trackers flagged a major Bitcoin transfer to Binance. Two wallets linked to Matrixport moved a combined 4,000 BTC — worth roughly $347 million — to the exchange.
Large exchange inflows are frequently interpreted as preparation to sell or hedge exposure. The timing of the transfer, coinciding with Bitcoin’s test of critical support, has heightened anxiety among traders already wary of downside risk.
Also Read: Hyperliquid Proposes Treating $1B in HYPE as Burned — Here’s Why It Matters
Traders Watch Key Price Levels
Market analysts remain divided on the near-term outlook. Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is likely to remain choppy unless it decisively breaks below the $84,000–$85,000 area or clears resistance near $94,000.
For now, attention remains firmly on $81,500. Holding that level could calm markets, while a clean break below it may open the door to a deeper correction.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
Crypto and blockchain enthusiast.
