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- Strategy has a 70% chance to join the S&P 500 by December.
- Q3 earnings and fair-value Bitcoin gains are the main catalysts.
- Slowed Bitcoin purchases coincide with potential market liquidity rebound.
Despite a recent dip in stock performance and slower Bitcoin purchases, Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, may be on track for a December S&P 500 inclusion. According to crypto research firm 10X Research, the probability of Strategy joining the index by year-end is around 70%.
Q3 Earnings Could Be the Catalyst
Strategy is set to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings on Thursday, with expectations of a $3.8 billion gain from fair-value Bitcoin accounting. A profitable report could cement a 60–70% likelihood of the company’s S&P 500 entry effective December 19. 10X Research notes that the earnings report represents a clear catalyst for the stock, which has seen investor sentiment “washed out” in recent months.
“Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” the report added, signaling potential renewed investor interest.
Bitcoin Slowdown and mNAV Pressures
The S&P 500 optimism comes amid broader market concerns. Several firms with digital asset treasuries (DATs), including Strategy, have experienced declining market net asset value (mNAV), which measures a company’s enterprise value relative to its crypto holdings. An mNAV below 1 restricts firms from raising new funds to expand crypto positions, and Strategy’s mNAV has recently been under pressure.
October saw Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisitions slow dramatically to 778 BTC, down 78% from September’s 3,526 BTC. Despite this, 10X Research views the slowdown as a potential turning point in the crypto cycle, where liquidity could return and market moves could accelerate.
Also Read: BNB Price Holds Firm Above $1,000 as Bitcoin’s Rejection Sparks Market Sell-Off
Credit Rating and Market Implications
Adding to the complexity, Strategy recently received a “B-” credit rating from S&P Global Ratings, placing it in speculative territory. This marks the first time a Bitcoin-focused company has been assessed by S&P Global, providing a new benchmark for traditional investors evaluating crypto companies.
Strategy’s potential S&P 500 inclusion highlights a pivotal moment for corporate crypto holders. With earnings as the key catalyst, slowed Bitcoin purchases may coincide with a broader market liquidity rebound, positioning the company for renewed investor attention and potential growth.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
