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Despite a steep 12.60% drop in April, Cardano (ADA) remains 87% above its election-day opening price — a testament to strong holder conviction. While many high-cap altcoins struggle, ADA investors appear content to sit on unrealized gains, resisting the urge to sell amid short-term volatility.
Cardano’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has slipped below pre-election levels, pointing to ongoing liquidity outflows. At the same time, Whale Transaction Count (>$100K) has plunged to a cycle low, signaling declining institutional interest. The divergence between price resilience and weakening fundamentals suggests a tipping point may be near.
On the charts, ADA’s technical structure has faltered. Since February, the altcoin has logged three consecutive lower lows, with the latest breakdown on April 6 breaching the crucial $0.58 support level. This fueled concerns of a deeper correction, particularly as ADA’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio turned negative — indicating that recent buyers are now underwater.
Yet, ADA bulls found temporary relief. A sudden price rebound to $0.6283, driven by a 7% surge in 24 hours, offered hope of a recovery. This bounce coincided with a spike in daily trading volume to nearly $2 billion and significant whale accumulation — over 250 million ADA snapped up by addresses holding 100M–1B ADA on April 10. This move forced $901K in short liquidations, temporarily blinding bearish sentiment.
Also Read: Cardano Founder Reveals 37M User Airdrop: What Will NIGHT Token Launch At?
The largest whale cohort — sitting on 12.6 billion ADA — has yet to make a move. More worryingly, dormant whale circulation (180-day) just spiked, often a precursor to local tops. If previously inactive coins continue to flood the market, and ADA fails to reclaim $0.58 as solid support, structural weakness could spiral into full-blown capitulation.
For now, Cardano’s fate hinges on whether conviction can outweigh weakening fundamentals — or if sentiment will crack under mounting pressure.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
