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Bitcoin [BTC] has shed nearly 5% since Friday, triggering a drop in the Fear and Greed Index. Short-term holders are facing losses, while long-term investors appear to be accumulating, suggesting a potential recovery may be in the works.
A Brewing Recovery?
Despite the bearish sentiment, on-chain indicators hint at a shift. The stablecoin ratio channel, a key liquidity measure, is signaling a buying opportunity for Bitcoin and altcoins. The increased stablecoin supply suggests heightened liquidity, a phenomenon typically observed during bearish market phases.
Market cycles dictate that bearish trends eventually give way to bullish momentum, leaving investors wondering: When will Bitcoin’s next upswing begin?
Coinbase Premium Index Suggests Investor Caution
The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between BTC on Coinbase and Binance, provides insight into U.S. investor sentiment. A positive premium indicates stronger U.S.-based demand, but over the past three months, the index has remained neutral to negative, reflecting prevailing fear among American traders.
Currently, the index hovers around neutral levels. Its trajectory will likely depend on BTC’s price movement, which remains bearishly skewed on lower timeframes.
Token Transfer Volume Points to Decreasing Selling Pressure
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently highlighted that Bitcoin’s 90-day moving average of token transfer volume change (%) is approaching historic lows from 2023. This trend coincided with previous BTC accumulation phases, suggesting that major sell-offs may be concluding.
Token Transfer Volume Change [%] 90DMA is the 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of daily changes in transaction volume (expressed as a percentage). In simpler terms, it shows the average change in transaction volume over the past 90 days compared to the previous day, smoothed to… pic.twitter.com/WtUsbJLNPC
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) March 31, 2025
This metric measures transaction volume changes over a 90-day period, and its recent decline implies that sellers may have already exited, paving the way for Bitcoin to stabilize and potentially climb higher.
Another key metric, Bitcoin’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), tracks long-term holder activity. High CDD values typically indicate selling from long-term holders, often preceding trend shifts. Over the past three months, BTC’s 50-day moving average of CDD has been declining, reinforcing the notion of reduced sell pressure from seasoned investors.
Also Read: Tether Boosts Bitcoin Holdings with 8,888 BTC Purchase – A Billion-Dollar Bet on BTC’s Future
While indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s downtrend may be nearing its end, an immediate recovery is not guaranteed. Traders should exercise caution and avoid rushing to catch the bottom. The market remains poised for a bullish shift, but timing remains uncertain.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
