Despite a recent dip to $90,000, nearly half of Bitcoin options traders are confident that the cryptocurrency will reach six figures by the end of 2024. According to recent on-chain data, there is even a growing interest in Bitcoin exceeding $150,000, with the likelihood of this surge rising to 4% from last week’s 34%. This shift in market sentiment signals a strong appetite for both upward potential and downside protection.
Nick Forster, the founder of on-chain options DeFi protocol, highlighted in a Nov. 26 report that the likelihood of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 has increased significantly. “The probability has now risen to 45% from last week’s 34%, with a new 4% chance of surpassing $150,000,” he stated. This sentiment is reflected in the ongoing demand for Bitcoin options, particularly call options that bet on future price increases.
Bitcoin Options Data Shows Strong Market Demand
As of the latest data, Bitcoin’s price stands at $92,680, a 7% drop from its recent peak of $99,541. Despite this pullback, Bitcoin options trading activity reveals a bullish market sentiment. A significant portion of options traded were calls (41.3%), indicating traders are positioning themselves for upward price movement. Puts, which bet on Bitcoin’s price decline, make up 38.3% of contracts. With “very few sellers,” this data reflects a market that is heavily skewed toward optimism and hedging against downside risk.
Forster emphasized that the current demand for Bitcoin options is a strong indicator of market confidence, even amid recent price fluctuations. “This signals a strong market appetite for both upside potential and downside protection,” he explained.
The Potential for a $100,000 Bitcoin by 2024
On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin has a 68% chance of either retracing to $81,493 or rising to $115,579 by the end of 2024. In contrast, the chances of Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 are minimal, with only a 5% probability of falling to $68,429. Meanwhile, there remains a small but notable chance—5%—that Bitcoin could reach as high as $137,645, fueling speculation about the cryptocurrency’s potential for significant price gains.
Analysts Weigh In on Bitcoin’s Price Action
Despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, some analysts caution that further pullbacks are a possibility. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warned that Bitcoin could experience corrections of up to -30% during a “parabolic bull run,” referencing similar pullbacks in the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin surged from $17,000 to $64,000. However, Ju emphasized the importance of risk management, advising traders to avoid panic selling during local bottoms.
Even in a parabolic bull run, #Bitcoin can see -30% pullbacks.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 26, 2024
Such corrections repeatedly occurred during the 2021 price discovery from 17K to 64K.
This isn’t a call for a correction—just manage your risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms. We’re in a bull market. pic.twitter.com/B5zpk7P0N9
On the other hand, prominent crypto analyst PlanC expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation within the $90,000 range. “It’s looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s,” he stated. He further suggested that this consolidation phase could be ideal for the sustainability of the bull market.
Happy to see #Bitcoin take a breather and consolidate a bit in the 90s.
— PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) November 26, 2024
I was hoping this would happen.
It’s looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s.
If that’s the case, it would be the best-case scenario for the longevity…
The Path to $100,000 and Beyond
As the market braces for Bitcoin’s potential rise to $100,000 by the end of 2024, the combination of bullish sentiment and strategic hedging reflects a growing belief in the cryptocurrency’s long-term value. While some analysts remain cautious about the possibility of pullbacks, the prevailing trend is one of optimism, with traders and analysts alike closely watching how Bitcoin’s price will evolve in the coming months. Whether Bitcoin will reach six figures or experience another dip remains to be seen, but the growing confidence in its future suggests a dynamic market poised for volatility and opportunity.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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